Security | Deterrence Center

DETERRENCE TO AVOID MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

We deliver multi-disciplinary deterrence solutions to increase safety and security

Deterrence is the capability of applying preventative measures, that are specially designed, to prevent adversarial escalation of any nature, which may be to the detriment of peace.

Strategic concepts such as emerging and disruptive technologies, terrorism, arms control, growing presence and intricacy of organised crime, climate change, human security, hybrid and cyber threats, and disinformation pose a threat to public safety and security. The development of modern deterrence capabilities, strategies and tactics, that are fit for the threats of our contemporary and interconnected world, is crucial.

Deterrence has the capacity to strengthen the security sector. We assist with increasing deterrence capabilities and build resilience in complex, often volatile environments. Our modern, cutting-edge deterrence solutions are aligned with the strategic concepts, objectives and development plans, and lay ground for capacity building.

DEVELOPING DETERRENCE CAPABILITIES

In the current state of global affairs, there is a heightened sense of awareness based on the nature of risks and threats posed by adversaries. With the development of technology, outreach, experience and skills, along with globalisation, many actors have developed arsenals of capabilities which:

Go beyond tangible threats, which cannot be dealt with by existing defence mechanism
Multitude of kinetic, psychological and cyber capabilities that can be deployed singularly or as a package
Capabilities that use, affect and manipulate the civilian population, energy and climate without a clear perpetrator or even without realisation from the public

The ability to be both resilient and agile is crucial. We provide solutions for being a few steps ahead.

Our deterrence solutions are encompassing threat management and deterrence of both: state and non-state actors.

We focus on building deterrence capabilities for and within the security sector. We research and analyse their applications and implications. We advise on capacity building, knowledge transfer, skills and their utilisation to maximise potential and deter adversaries.

STRATEGY AND TACTICS

We help to develop deterrence strategies that are focused on pre-emption, detection, analysis, risk assessment and management to build and shape capabilities that tackle threats before they become actionable.

We draw on multidisciplinary knowledge, intelligence and operational expertise in order to develop tactics that deter adverse and destructive actors, and prevent the escalation of multi-faceted threats, conflicts and war.

MULTIDICIPLINARY
SOLUTIONS

Deterrence Center provides advice on a variety of approaches, tools and training to increase the multifaceted deterrence capability.

We analyse and develop detailed profiles of adversaries, and propose ways to de-escalate tensions.

We also tailor a range of long and short term deterrence strategies and tactics are modeled and tested. This modus operandi is an on-going process to ensure that:

Capabilities are strong, versatile and resilient.
Capabilities of adversaries and their allies are known in advance, and therefore different deterrence strategies can be realised.
The likelihood of escalation is analysed and managed.
Capabilities are shaped in order to deter, discourage, or dissolve threats, before they materialise.

RESEARCH AND TRAINING

Training and research programs are specially designed to expand knowledge and understanding of modern, often hybrid and multifaceted threats; their causes, potential developments and solutions.

The ability to adapt is crucial, and we provide the grounds for not only adaptation, but also for being a few steps ahead. Deterrence Center promotes resilience and encourages the improvement of the ability to effectively deal with contemporary challenges.

Deterrence works on the adversary’s intentions, while defence reduces its capabilities. Deterrence can be defined as the capability to deter and influence. Well-designed and fit-for-purpose deterrence strategies can prevent and de-escalate threats from within and externally. Deterrence is also capable of shaping relations, but it is there to preserve peace, not to induce conflict.

HOW WE DO IT

We are agile, responsive and pro-active – tailoring support to quickly respond to demands, as well as advising on deterrence solutions that influence the evolution of threats. We provide academic quality research, analyses, training and consultancy. We incorporate global understanding, insight and multi-disciplinary perspectives to maximise capabilities and apply them more effectively and efficiently.

01.

STRATEGIC SUPPORT

Ad-hoc strategic assessments and support, tailored to specific needs and cases, in which the use of decisive deterrence is an advantage.

02.

EDUCATION AND TRAINING HUB

Cutting-edge training programmes and short courses tailored to meet specific needs.

03.

MIRA

Monitoring, Intelligence, Research and Analysis

04.

POLICY AND PLANNING UNIT

Bringing clarity to complex and often challenging topics and policy development, applications and implications of deterrence, as well as the nexus between standardisation and innovation.

CURRENTLY PRIORITISED SERVICES

UKRAINE

Due to the current conflict in Ukraine, there is an urgent need to produce a valid and reliable deterrence strategic assessment and support, tailored to specific needs and events (to deter further multi-dimensional escalation). Therefore we prioritise the following strategic support across our four divisions:

We provide ad-hoc strategic assessments and support
We offer training programmes and short courses
We use MIRA to inform our training and solutions
We advise on incorporating deterrence into future policies

Development of an interactive database

The database is comprised of two parts:

1. Catalogue of research and evidence based findings related to deterrence.

2. 'Deterrence toolbox' - a collection of broad and precise deterrence solutions.

The aim of this database is to promote interactive knowledge transfer, ensure efficiency and avoid duplication of efforts within the interoperability realm.

Training programmes

1. Training leaders and specialists.

'Deterrence for the Security Sector' training programme is based on the principles of transformation, inter-operability and standardisation. It brings together and activates a theoretical understanding of modern deterrence from a global perspective, followed by its operational applications and implications. It involves case study analyses, which allow participants to focus on pragmatic aspects of how deterrence capabilities can be applied. Also, participants become familiar with methodologies for creating deterrence solutions that utilise resources and capabilities already present. Moreover, this programme addresses potential setbacks such as duplication of resources and lack of cohesion.

2. Train the trainer

Deterrence Center trains those who can deliver similar training programmes to specific audiences. We recognise experience and expertise of the trainers and educators, therefore providing a specially designed deterrence training suitable for specific divisions and departments will maximise resources and minimise costs.

TRAINING PROGRAMMES

We deliver lectures, talks, training programmes, and short courses specially crafted for specific needs, levels and range of audiences.
Below are the examples of training programmes and short courses which are proposed for delivery. They can be delivered singularly or as a package.
Please contact us for more information.

Deterrence 101 - introduction to deterrence. Deterrence as balance between opportunities and risks.

Deterrence and smart power. Combination of hard and soft power as force multiplier.

Modern pathways of escalation and innovative deterrence solutions.

Deterring non-state actors.

Slow containment or fast offensive? Successful multi-domain collaborations and deterrence.

Developing deterrence profiles.

Nexus of deterrence and strategic culture - capability building from within.

Deterrence to avoid missed opportunities. Intelligence and information sharing.

Standardisation vs Innovation vs Deterrence.

Deterring Extremism and Radicalisation.

Lessons learned and lessons for the future - implications of great powers competition.

Successful deterrence: peace or power manipulation?

Deterrence as power: the ability to control and influence.

Cyber deterrence and modern technology. Reducing the risks of the public becoming combatants/ targets.

The importance of ethics in modern deterrence.

Deterrence and perception - analysing an adversary’s awareness and reactions.

The human aspect of deterrence.

MESSAGE FROM THE DIRECTOR:

"Due to the current state of affairs and volatility of peace, it is imperative to reach beyond the known and often out-dated deterrence practices, many of which are linked predominantly with nuclear deterrence, and those that rather simply delineate a power that uses the threat of reprisal effectively enough to preclude an attack from an adversary power.

It is of crucial importance to design and develop deterrence strategies that are fit for the threats of our contemporary and interconnected world, and are capable to prevent an escalation of any nature. Deterrence can also be used to promote a defensive posture.

Deterrence should be understood as the capability of applying preventative measures, that are specially designed, to prevent adversarial escalation of any nature, which may be to the detriment of peace"

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